Executive Summary

Q4 2024 monthly distributions were volatile: $0.435840 (Oct), $0.514350 (Nov), and $0.311170 (Dec), with December pressured by lower volumes/prices and materially higher ad valorem taxes deducted from the distribution .
November improved sequentially on stronger oil and gas volumes; December declined on both lower production and commodity prices, plus $1.624M in ad valorem taxes deducted vs $0.99M a year ago .
Timing effects matter: revenue received after month-end is posted in the subsequent month (e.g., ~$418K posted in Nov, ~$1.526M posted in Dec), impacting month-to-month distributions .
No earnings call transcript found for Q4; Sabine Royalty Trust communicates via monthly distribution press releases and 8-Ks, not typical quarterly earnings events .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

November distribution increased: “higher than the previous month’s primarily due to an increase in oil and gas production” ($0.514350 per unit; oil 70,299 bbls, gas 1,898,789 Mcf) .
October benefited from improved pricing: “higher than the previous month’s primarily due to an increase in oil and gas pricing” (oil $79.00/bbl, gas $1.81/Mcf) .
Operational cadence remained steady with ongoing receipt and posting of royalties (e.g., ~$183K received after Oct close, ~$290K after Nov close), supporting near-term distribution continuity .

December distribution dropped to $0.311170 per unit, driven by lower oil and gas production and lower commodity pricing (oil $71.76/bbl; gas $1.39/Mcf) .
Significant ad valorem taxes reduced December distribution: ~$1.624M deducted vs ~$990K last year; trustee flagged potential differences in January–February 2025 compared to prior year due to rendition timing .
Gas pricing remained weak across Q4, contributing to overall revenue headwinds (Nov $1.78/Mcf, Dec $1.39/Mcf) .

Metric	Oct 2024	Nov 2024	Dec 2024
Distribution per Unit ($)	$0.435840	$0.514350	$0.311170
Oil Volume (bbls)	64,075	70,299	68,183
Gas Volume (Mcf)	1,182,039	1,898,789	1,536,640
Avg Oil Price ($/bbl)	$79.00	$76.90	$71.76
Avg Gas Price ($/Mcf)	$1.81	$1.78	$1.39
Revenue Timing Notes	~$6K posted in Oct; ~$169K received after Sep close	~$418K posted in Nov; ~$183K received after Oct close	~$1.526M posted in Dec; ~$290K received after Nov close
Ad Valorem Taxes Deducted	Not disclosed	~$167K	~$1.624M

Metric	Jul 2024	Aug 2024	Sep 2024
Distribution per Unit ($)	$0.379040	$0.450890	$0.421310
Oil Volume (bbls)	55,484	76,461	64,743
Gas Volume (Mcf)	1,414,577	1,346,957	1,359,603
Avg Oil Price ($/bbl)	$82.07	$77.48	$78.14
Avg Gas Price ($/Mcf)	$1.29	$1.20	$1.52
Revenue Timing Notes	~$539K posted in Jul; ~$287K received after Jun close	~$212K posted in Aug; ~$264K received after Jul close	~$89K posted in Sep; ~$302K received after Aug close

Notes:

Sabine’s distributions typically reflect oil production for the second prior month and gas production for the third prior month (e.g., Dec reflects Sept oil and Aug gas) .

Sabine Royalty Trust does not issue financial guidance; distributions are declared monthly based on actual royalties received and posted.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
EPS	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Margins	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Distributions	Monthly	Not guided	Declared: Oct $0.435840; Nov $0.514350; Dec $0.311170	Not applicable

No earnings call transcript was available for Q4 2024. Key operational themes from monthly press releases:

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Commodity Pricing	Q2/Q3 showed oil prices ~$76–82/bbl; gas ~$1.20–$2.13/Mcf, with distribution sensitivity to price changes	Oil ~$71.76–$79.00/bbl; gas ~$1.39–$1.81/Mcf, with December weakness cited	Softer pricing into December, pressuring distributions
Production Volumes	Volumes fluctuated month-to-month, impacting distributions (e.g., Aug oil 76,461 bbls vs Jul 55,484 bbls)	November volumes improved (oil 70,299; gas 1,898,789), December declined	Mixed: sequential strength in Nov, decline in Dec
Revenue Timing	Regular notes on royalties posted after month-end affecting next posting cycle	Continued timing effects (e.g., ~$418K posted in Nov; ~$1.526M posted in Dec)	Persistent timing variability month-to-month
Taxes (Ad Valorem)	Minimal in early 2024 (e.g., ~$13K in April)	Seasonally higher in Nov/Dec (Nov ~$167K; Dec ~$1.624M)	Seasonal increase materially reduced December distribution
Operational Messaging	Emphasis on distribution mechanics and posting cadence	Same messaging; reminder that sales volumes recorded when royalties are received/identified	Stable disclosure approach

“This month’s distribution is lower than the previous month’s primarily due to a decrease in oil and gas production, as well as a decrease in the pricing of both oil and natural gas.” (December PR) .
“Sales volumes are recorded in the month the Trust receives and identifies the related royalty income… revenues are only distributed after they are received, verified, and posted.” (December PR) .
“Approximately $1,624,000 for 2024 Ad Valorem taxes was deducted from this month’s distribution… amounts to be deducted in the January 2025 and February 2025 distributions may be different relative to the same time periods last year.” (December PR) .
“This month’s distribution is higher than the previous month’s primarily due to an increase in oil and gas production.” (November PR) .
“This month’s distribution is higher than the previous month’s primarily due to an increase in oil and gas pricing.” (October PR) .

No Q4 2024 earnings call or Q&A were available; Sabine communicates via monthly press releases and related 8-K filings .

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA for Q4 2024 was unavailable at the time of retrieval due to data access limits. As a royalty trust with monthly distributions and no typical “quarterly EPS” cadence, formal quarterly estimates coverage may be limited. Values retrieved from S&P Global were not accessible due to daily limit constraints.*

Distributions are highly sensitive to commodity prices and production volumes; December’s drop reflects both lower volumes/prices and seasonal taxes .
Expect continued month-to-month variability from revenue posting timing; large amounts posted after month-end can shift between periods (e.g., ~$1.526M posted in Dec) .
Seasonal ad valorem taxes can materially impact distributions; trustee flagged potential differences in Jan–Feb 2025 vs prior year due to rendition timing .
November strength (higher volumes) underscores operating leverage to production upside, even with mixed commodity pricing .
Gas pricing remains a headwind; sustained softness in gas prices reduces distribution potential versus periods with higher gas realizations .
With no formal guidance or earnings calls, monitoring monthly PRs for volumes, prices, and posting/tax timing is critical to forecasting near-term distributions .
Near-term trading implications: investors should anticipate distribution volatility through tax season and watch incoming PRs for commodity price trends and posting cadence signals .